Monday, November 12, 2007

What is the best conference?

This week there was a lot of talk about what was the best NCAA football conference, and whether the Big XII is the best conference because they have 3 of the top teams in college football. I decided to talk about what are the best conferences according to my college football rankings, and my take on them.
Much like American Idol, I’ll start out at the bottom. There are 11 NCAA BCS division (1A) conferences, and then 4 teams that are independents- which I’ll count as a conference themselves.
Number 12- Sun Belt Conference (93.25)
Ok, that one is easy. The Sun Belt has two teams that are remotely decent. Troy and Middle Tennessee St are the only teams that can beat anybody else. The primary purpose of the Sun Belt is to provide non-conference games for SEC teams.
Number 11- MAC (91.85)
Much like the Sun Belt, the MAC is primarily meant as fodder for Big 10 schools. They’re still reeling from Marshall’s departure (which after going to Conference USA has suddenly gone bad). The MAC’s best team (a term used lightly) is Central Michigan is ranked 69th. On the plus side, the MAC is the least top heavy conference, which only means that all teams are equally bad.
Number 10- Independents (90.25)
There are only 4 teams still operating as independents. Two are military schools, and Navy doesn’t completely suck. One is Western Kentucky, which just moved from 1-AA and plays six 1-AA teams in their schedule. The other is- Notre Dame- enough said.
Number 9- Conference USA (83.50)
Conference USA is interesting, because while there are only a few bad teams (Marshall, SMU, Tulane, and UAB) there aren’t any teams that are especially good. There is UCF (38), but they aren’t really as good as that indicates.
Number 8- WAC (82.78)
The WAC isn’t as bad as the rankings would indicate, although they are in the right spot. The WAC has two good teams (Hawaii and Boise St) which is what the WAC has traditionally had. Fresno St isn’t bad (62) and Nevada (88) is going to a bowl. The problem is that the bottom of the WAC is bad. Games versus Utah St, New Mexico St, Idaho, and San Jose St aren’t exactly nail biters.
Number 7- MWC (59.89)
If there was ever a case to put another conference into the BCS (which they should turn into a play-off anyway, and invite all conference champs) it would be the Mountain West. The MWC has 4 teams in the top 50, and will probably have 6 teams bowl eligible. Back in the days when this was the WAC, it was BYU’s conference, but there is no guarantee anymore. Unfortunately, there are too many teams that are down. Colorado St is pathetic, UNLV and San Diego St aren’t exactly giant killers.
The BCS conferences
Number 6- ACC (44.67)
Ok, on any given year, this conference could be considered the best in college football; but not this year. It is what happens when the two glory programs (Florida St and Miami) go down at the same time. At the same time, there aren’t any teams challenging for BCS championships- even if I did think Boston College was going to play for it a few weeks ago. On the plus side, the only bad team in the whole conference is Duke.
Number 5- Big East (44.43)
A year ago this was the best conference in football, but that was because they had 3 undefeated teams, who went on to only lose to themselves. The conference is strong in the middle, just not very strong at top. At the bottom you have Syracuse, which is an interesting case. Syracuse always plays a tough schedule, except they don’t win. As long as you don’t win, computers don’t like you.
Number 4- PAC-10 (42.70)
I can make a case for the Pac-10 being the best conference in football (not a very good case, but a case). I think the Pac-10 suffers because they tend to play tougher non-conference games against WAC and MWC teams, and teams rarely go undefeated in the non-conference. On top of that, it is the easiest conference for a team to lose 4 games in (imagine Cal getting four loses in any other league). It is a conference in which the team thought to be the worst (Stanford) beat the team thought to be best (USC) on the road. That doesn’t happen in the Big 10, or SEC.
Number 3- Big 10 (Big 11) (42.55)
All right, the Big 10 is right on par with the Pac 10. It usually has 4 to five really good teams, and 4 teams that are terrible. Of course those bottom four teams always get at least 3 non-conference wins because they play every directional Michigan school possible, and computers put them in the top 60- after all they do have to play Michigan and Ohio St. It is amazing how often there are 3 top ranked teams that don’t meet each other (except for the famed Ohio St/Michigan match up.
Number 2- Big XII (42.33)
What? The Big XII has 3 teams in the top five, how can they not be the best conference? Well, because there are only 4 teams that are any good. If you discount a fluke Colorado win against Oklahoma, the conference is even more top heavy.
Number 1- SEC (34.25)
I know SEC teams play non-conference games against NW Central Tennessee Tech, and your always tough Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana- Lafayette juggernauts. The bottom of the SEC has absolutely no chance of pulling an upset, and only beat each other. While we are asking, why doesn’t Vanderbilt ever play on TV? With all that, they are still the best conference because there are eight teams that would probably challenge for any other conference in football. LSU is awesome and they still must play Tennessee or Georgia to win the SEC (not an easy challenge).


2 comments:

hiester said...

What makes a conference strong-- a few undefeated or one loss teams at the top, or balance from top to bottom? I would think that balance from top to bottom, where the last place team is capable of knocking off the first place team (stanford/USC) makes a conference strong. The only way to judge a conference is based on the teams' out of conference records and strength of schedule. CAL, Oregon, and USC all had reasonable out of conference schedules and dominated the competition. But they all have struggled and lost at least 2 games in conference games. Doesn't that define conference strength right there? Teams like Kansas and Missouri that roll through conference play don't mean much because their out of conference schedules were so incredibly weak, it's hard to evaluate their in-conference wins. So if you really want to compare conference, the Ohio States of the world have to stop playing cupcakes like they did this year, and continue scheduling teams like Texas as they did in 2006/2007.

Mark Holtebeck said...

I agree with you. The computer rankings are based on the average ranking for a team in the conference, which sometimes hurts conferences like the Pac-10. USC would likely be top 5 without losing to Stanford, but Stanford is still at the back of the pack even with beating USC.